Four missions in Israel's "Lion Rising" operation

Judging from the developments, analysts say that the “Lion Rising” campaign that Israel is conducting has four main missions and Tel Aviv has not been able to complete these goals.

Starting from the early morning of June 13, the Israeli military (IDF) suddenly launched Operation Am KaLavi (Lion Rising), massively attacking Iran with air force and intelligence forces. After 12 days of conducting the operation, the results of the 4 missions of Operation Am KaLavi can be evaluated as follows:

First, focus on destroying Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel believes that Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons. If it does not stop further development, Israel's existence in the Middle East will be threatened and its hegemony will be lost. For this reason, the Israeli Air Force focused on attacking Iran's nuclear facilities on the first day of the operation, hoping to completely destroy them, so that Iran can denuclearize and abandon the idea of ​​developing nuclear weapons.

For 12 consecutive days, including with the help of US strategic air power, the Israeli Air Force attacked more than 10 Iranian nuclear facilities. But Israel could not destroy the core components without US strategic bombers to drop giant bunker-buster bombs.

In particular, the core of the Fordow nuclear facility is located nearly 100 meters underground. Conventional bombs, or Israeli precision-guided weapons, are like “mosquitoes biting electric poles”. Even the US with its most powerful GBU-57 MOP bomb, is not sure it can destroy a target as deep as 60 meters.

In theory, Israel would need at least 10 GBU-57 MOP bombs to attack Iran's nuclear facilities from the same location, but in practice, the GBU-57 MOP bomb holes dropped by B-2 bombers did not cause much destruction. Therefore, Israel's plan to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities is basically impossible.

Second, eliminate Iran's counterattack force. Iran's missile force is the primary target of the Israeli Air Force and also Iran's only long-range counterattack force. Only by eliminating the Iranian missile threat can Israel ensure that it will not be attacked.

Over the past 12 days, Iran has completed at least 21 missile attacks on Israel, launching about 620 missiles, an average of 30 missiles per wave. Although Israel has deployed dense multi-layered air defense systems and THADD, Arrow 2/Arrow 3, Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile systems, a large number of Iranian missiles have successfully raided and attacked many important Israeli infrastructures, causing great damage.

Therefore, the actions of the Israeli Air Force focused on attacking Iranian missile launch sites, launchers, missile warehouses and other targets. From the public images, many Iranian missile transport or launch vehicles were destroyed, and the entrances and exits of underground bunkers were blown up.

Israel claims to have destroyed more than half of Iran's missile launchers and intervened in large-scale retaliation. Judging by the intensity of Iran's counterattacks over the past few days, the number of missile launches has actually shown a downward trend.

During the first three days of retaliation, the average number of rockets launched exceeded 60, and the number of launches per day since then has been between 20 and 30, indicating that Israel's deterrence operations have had some impact.

However, most of Iran’s missiles are stored underground. Israeli airstrikes have only prevented Iran from using them, but have not completely destroyed them. Iran can launch missiles at any time if the opportunity arises. In particular, Iran has deployed the heavy Khorramshahr-4 missile, which is considered a “super missile”, with a longer range, greater destructive power and stronger penetration.

The Khorramshahr-4 missile uses two-stage solid fuel and can be launched from mobile launchers; its maximum range is over 2,000 km, it can carry a 1,500 kg high-explosive warhead, and it can be launched from eastern Iran, making it difficult for Israeli fighter jets to threaten it. Therefore, it is almost impossible for Israel to destroy Iran's missile force.

Based on Iran's missile stockpiles, production capacity, and launch frequency over the past few days, Iran's missiles can continue to launch for at least several months. If Israel's air defense system collapses first, they will be unable to defend themselves against attacks.

Third, to disintegrate the Iranian regime. As soon as the attack began, bad news came to Iran's top leaders. The commander in chief, deputy commander in chief, chief of staff, air force commander and intelligence chiefs were assassinated one after another.

Through long-term infiltration, surveillance and deployment, Israel attempted to paralyze Iran's high command in one blow, causing chaos in Iran's "decision-making center", slowing down the counterattack, and even trying to overthrow the Iranian regime. However, from the actual effect, Israel's assassination did not affect Iran. The counterattack was carried out quickly and the command was not in chaos. Therefore, Israel did not achieve this goal either.

Fourth, Israel has attempted to pave the way for US intervention by launching a preemptive strike, to jointly destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and counterattack forces, thereby eliminating the threat to Israel in the Middle East.

On the night of June 22, CNN news agency quoted a US official as saying that Washington deployed six B-2 bombers to drop a series of bunker-busting bombs on the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran. In addition, another B-2 also dropped two bombs of the same type on Natanz. The official added that US Navy submarines launched a total of 30 TLAM cruise missiles targeting Natanz and Isfahan.

However, before the US aircraft joined the campaign to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran had already moved all personnel, machinery, and nuclear materials from the facilities to safe locations. Therefore, the US bombing campaign, although “noisy”, was actually ineffective.

After 13 days of fighting, at 7:00 a.m. on June 24 (GMT), the ceasefire regime, announced earlier by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, came into effect. Iran has not officially confirmed or denied its participation in the ceasefire.

It is safe to say that Israel has underestimated Iran’s strength and overestimated its own capabilities. To date, four missions of Israel’s Am KaLavi operation remain “unfinished,” putting Tel Aviv in a difficult position. A ceasefire has been established so far, but how sustainable it will be remains an open question. (Photo source: Al Jazeera, IRNA, The Time of Israel).

Source: https://khoahocdoisong.vn/bon-nhiem-vu-trong-chien-dich-su-tu-troi-day-cua-israel-post1550175.html