In its July 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO) publication, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in the Asia- Pacific region for the 2025-2026 period.
Vietnam's GDP growth is revised down to 6.3% in 2025 and 6% in 2026 (lower than the April forecast of 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively). Inflation is expected to decline to 3.9% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.
According to ADB's assessment, strong import-export growth along with a sharp increase in foreign investment disbursement has boosted Vietnam's economy in the first half of 2025.
In particular, total foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam in the first 6 months of this year increased by 32.6%, while disbursement increased by 8.1% over the same period last year, showing the strong confidence of the international community in Vietnam's economic prospects. Public investment disbursement reached the highest level since 2018, reaching 31.7% of the annual plan and increasing by 19.8% over the same period last year.
Boosting exports in response to tariff uncertainty has boosted trade growth, but this is unlikely to be sustained in the second half of the year, according to the ADB.
According to ADB experts, despite the increased risks due to tariff instability, promoting and effectively implementing domestic reforms can completely help Vietnam minimize negative impacts, thanks to its increasingly consolidated internal foundation.
Previously, according to a report by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) released at the end of July, in the ASEAN+3 group, Vietnam is forecast to have the highest growth rate this year, followed by the Philippines (5.6%) and Cambodia (5.2%).
AMRO believes that Vietnam has enough policy space to support the economy when needed. Reforms to improve the investment environment and infrastructure are also helping Vietnam consolidate its position.
In early July, United Overseas Bank (UOB) also adjusted its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 6.9%, instead of the previous 6%.
UOB estimates that Vietnam’s real GDP will rebound strongly in the second quarter of 2025, beating Bloomberg’s forecast of 6.85% and UOB’s forecast of 6.1%, as well as the revised 7.05% for the first quarter of 2025.
Notably, in the first half of the year, Vietnam's export turnover increased by 14.4% over the same period last year, reaching 219 billion USD, while imports increased by 17.9%, reaching 212 billion USD. These figures are equivalent to the growth rate of the whole year 2024 (exports increased by 14%, imports increased by 16%).
For the last two quarters of the year, UOB forecasts GDP growth of around 6.4% in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Under these conditions, realized FDI inflows are expected to reach around US$20 billion this year.
Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/mot-to-chuc-quoc-te-ha-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam-nam-2025-3370061.html
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