At the end of the year, will the land in the North still have a "fever"?

A recent report on the real estate market in the first 6 months of 2025 (before the merger of provinces and cities) by Property Guru Vietnam Company shows that land prices in many northern localities have increased sharply from the beginning of 2023 to the second quarter of 2025. For example, in Hoa Binh, land prices increased by 200%, Bac Giang increased by 100%, Hung Yen increased by 75%, Bac Ninh increased by 54%, Vinh Phuc increased by 26%...

In Bac Ninh, land prices are up to 36 million VND/m², Hung Yen 35 million VND/m², Ha Nam and Hai Duong about 26 million VND/m², Bac Giang and Vinh Phuc 24 million VND/m².

Mr. Le Tuan Anh, a real estate investor in Hanoi , said that at the end of 2024, he planned to buy a plot of land of more than 100 m² in Kieu Phu commune ( Hanoi ) for 40 million VND/m², but for many reasons he could not buy it. By March 2025, he returned to look for land in this area and the price had increased to 55 million VND/m². The plot of land he previously planned to buy was also advertised by the owner for 60 million VND/m².

" I was surprised to see that in just a short time the price had increased by 30 - 50% ," said Mr. Tuan Anh.

Land prices are expected to continue to increase but are unlikely to reach a fever (Illustration photo)

According to him, not only in Kieu Phu commune but also in Quoc Oai commune and Phu Cat commune, land prices have also increased by 20-30% compared to the end of 2024. " The price level is too high, so I still don't dare to spend money to buy because I still have to calculate the profit after investment. I will probably wait for the market to cool down at the end of the year and then calculate ," Mr. Tuan Anh shared.

However, Mr. Tuan Anh also expressed concern and fear that from now until the end of the year, land fever may continue to occur, making it impossible for prices to go down.

Commenting on this issue, many experts predict: Although land prices may continue to increase, it is unlikely to reach a fever in the second half of this year.

Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy, CEO of the Faculty of Finance and Banking (Nguyen Trai University), analyzed: The recent price increase is mainly a recovery phenomenon after a deep adjustment cycle in the period of 2022 - 2024, not a signal for a "fever" in the sense of sudden increase in asset prices, massive inflow of money and widespread speculative behavior.

For a land fever to occur, many factors are needed and currently these factors have not appeared. Firstly, credit control tools for risky real estate are still maintained with a target, especially for segments such as land, so even though the cash flow has "warmed up", it is not excessive enough to create a bubble.

Second, investors are returning to the market but their behavior has changed. They prioritize assets with clear legal status, real locations, and cash flow, instead of chasing rumors like before.

Third, tools to control the land market have been and are being applied strongly such as: tightening subdivision and separation of plots; making planning transparent; digitizing land data; and orienting property taxation.

In particular, the new legal system from 2025 (amended Law on Land, Housing, and Real Estate Business) is creating a foundation for tighter market management, reducing the risk of creating virtual fever.

" I think that the market will not experience a large-scale land fever at the end of this year. There may be local hot spots but they are short-term, fragmented and mainly revolve around areas with breakthroughs in infrastructure, urbanization or real industrial transformation ," Mr. Huy commented.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Property Guru Vietnam, also said that after the hot growth period, the market is shifting from land to segments with better liquidity such as apartments. The land market in the North is no longer an "easy cake" for all investors. The problem of choosing the right place, the right area, and the right time is becoming more stringent.

However, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh also said that the prospect of the land segment from now until the end of the year depends a lot on policies.

“ Investor psychology greatly affects the type of investment. When the market is unstable, they look for safe assets such as apartments. When the market starts to get excited, they will look for land and resort real estate. This roadmap is very clear ,” he said.

Accordingly, if the upcoming policies, especially on taxes, are issued clearly, favorably and reasonably, the land market is completely capable of heating up again. On the contrary, if the policies are still complicated, cautious investment psychology occurs again, plus information about the possibility of taxing abandoned land, investors will have to calculate very carefully.

Mr. Le Dinh Chung, General Director of SGO Homes, predicted that real estate that meets real housing needs will have the potential to increase in price. In fact, in areas with low population density and few amenities, land prices do not increase as strongly as in areas where housing has been built, with full services and amenities, and meets real housing needs well.

Therefore, according to Mr. Chung, investors who previously had the habit of investing in land will gradually shift to residential real estate. They will focus on densely populated areas, central areas and have good rental potential.

Source: https://baolangson.vn/cuoi-nam-dat-nen-mien-bac-co-con-len-con-sot-5054305.html