Along with the Philippines, Vietnam's GDP growth leads Southeast Asia; China maintains at 4.8%

According to ADB, Vietnam's growth outlook for 2024 and 2025 remains unchanged at 6.0% and 6.2%, respectively, with positive growth in the first half of 2024.

Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 will lead Southeast Asia, along with the Philippines. (Source: VNA)

In the latest edition of its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report released on July 17, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its economic growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific in 2024 to 5.0% from its previous forecast of 4.9%, as the region’s rising exports complement resilient domestic demand. The growth outlook for next year remains unchanged at 4.9%.

Inflation is forecast to ease gradually to 2.9% this year, amid falling global food prices and the lingering impact of higher interest rates,

After a recovery from the pandemic that was largely driven by domestic demand, exports are rebounding strongly and helping to boost the region’s economic growth. Strong global demand for electronics products, especially semiconductors used in high-tech and artificial intelligence applications, is helping to boost exports from several Asian economies .

“Most of Asia and the Pacific is seeing faster economic growth than in the second half of last year,” said ADB Chief Economist Alberk Park. “The region’s fundamentals remain solid, but policymakers need to be mindful of a number of risks that could impact the growth outlook, from uncertainty around election outcomes in major economies to interest rate decisions and geopolitical tensions.”

While inflation is gradually falling towards pre-pandemic levels in the region as a whole, price pressures remain high in some economies. Food price inflation remains high in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific, partly due to adverse weather conditions and food export restrictions in some economies.

Growth forecasts for China, the region’s largest economy, are unchanged at 4.8% this year. Continued recovery in services consumption and stronger-than-expected industrial activity and exports are supporting growth, even as China’s struggling property sector remains unsettled. The government introduced additional policy measures in May to support the property market.

The outlook for India, the region’s fastest-growing economy, is also unchanged at 7.0% in fiscal 2024. India’s industrial sector is forecast to grow strongly, driven by strong manufacturing and construction demand. Agriculture is expected to recover amid forecasts of above-average rainfall, while investment demand remains strong, with public investment playing a key role.

For Southeast Asia, growth forecast is maintained at 4.6% this year on solid improvements in domestic and external demand.

Vietnam’s growth outlook for 2024 and 2025 remains unchanged at 6.0% and 6.2%, respectively, with positive growth in the first half of 2024. However, trade-related manufacturing – one of the main drivers of recovery – is expected to slow down in the near term, while domestic demand remains weak. Inflation is forecast to stabilize at 4.0% in 2024 and 2025.

With this result, Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 will lead the Southeast Asian region, along with the Philippines. It is followed by Indonesia with a forecast growth rate of 5% in 2024. Next are Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, with forecast growth rates of 4.5%, 2.6% and 2.4% in 2024, respectively.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/adb-cung-philippines-tang-truong-gdp-cua-viet-nam-dan-dau-khu-vuoc-dong-nam-a-trung-quoc-duy-tri-o-muc-48-279050.html