Middle ground between opportunities 'peace is precious'

The visit comes less than three weeks after US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivered a speech criticizing China at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue. In a subsequent speech at the same Shangri-La Dialogue, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu responded with harsh criticism to the US. Before the conference took place, Beijing rejected Washington's request for the two defense ministers to have a discussion on the sidelines of the event.

President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping meet in Bali, Indonesia in November 2022

Not only that, a number of incidents between the two countries' militaries have occurred both in the air and at sea recently, posing many potential risks to peace and stability in the region. In recent years, US-China relations have increasingly deteriorated with many disagreements on the East Sea, Taiwan and the war in Ukraine. The trade conflict between the two sides has also increased and shows no sign of stopping.

In such a context, will Secretary of State Blinken's visit to China be enough to "cool down" tensions so that the two sides can "make peace" with each other? To answer this question, some international experts gave their opinions in an interview with Thanh Nien right before the visit.

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It's hard to be optimistic.

The Biden administration wants to open channels of communication with China to explore areas where the two sides can cooperate and avoid unintended conflict. But it’s hard to be optimistic when China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang continues to blame the United States for all of its problems. I think most of China’s neighbors want to see a more constructive and pragmatic approach to US-China diplomacy .

Dr. Patrick M. Cronin (Chair of Asia- Pacific Security, Hudson Institute, USA)

Open up opportunities

The visit offers an opportunity for both sides to ease tensions. While there is little chance of a breakthrough, re-establishing contact would open the door to a clearer exchange of views and a move towards talks to reduce tensions.

Dr. Timothy R. Heath (senior research expert, RAND Corporation, USA)

Small concessions may be possible.

Secretary Blinken’s visit to China is another attempt to stabilize fraying bilateral ties. The visit was originally scheduled for February but was postponed indefinitely after a Chinese balloon was spotted and shot down off the US coast.

The reason is that Washington accused it of being a spy balloon.

The recent G7 summit reaffirmed US solidarity with Japan, South Korea, European allies and a number of partners. Many implied diplomatic isolation of China and Russia.

China and Russia have countered the G7 move by using the BRICS group to challenge the West and have left the USD facing concerns at times amid internal US political disagreements over a solution to the debt ceiling.

Now, Blinken’s diplomatic calendar has found room for another effort and to avoid a further deterioration in relations. But it is difficult to expect the two sides to reach a consensus when Beijing’s recent comments on the Ryukyus (the independent kingdom that governs Okinawa) have upset Tokyo.

Amid rising tensions, the US and China may present small concessions as major successes. Perhaps easing restrictions on low-tech semiconductor trade with China will be a “souvenir” from Secretary Blinken.

Professor Yoichiro Sato (expert in international relations, Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University, Japan; Senior Fellow, Yusof Ishak Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore)

Avoid escalating conflicts

Secretary Blinken’s visit is part of a US effort to open up communication channels to manage competition with China so it doesn’t escalate into conflict. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in early June, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also emphasized this priority.

China is clearly willing to reopen the bridge of communication with US economic and diplomatic officials, but remains unwilling to talk to US defense and military officials, a reality that is dangerous given the recent increase in unsafe air and sea encounters between the two sides.

Mr. Gregory Poling (Director of Southeast Asia Program, Director of Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative - AMTI, Center for Strategic and International Studies - CSIS, USA)

Important opportunity

The visit is an important opportunity to seek to stabilize US-China relations, something Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden agreed to be a common goal when the two leaders met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Indonesia in November 2022. I think the best-case scenario is that the visit helps prevent further deterioration in relations, but improving relations is unlikely.

Both sides should use this opportunity to clarify their intentions, address differences, and communicate their concerns. However, I do not expect any breakthroughs, but it is possible that both sides will add to their commitments during subsequent visits, such as those by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen or US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate Change John Kerry to Beijing.

Ms. Bonnie S. Glaser (Director of the Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund in the United States)

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Source link: https://thanhnien.vn/my-trung-giua-co-hoi-di-hoa-vi-quy-185230617010554014.htm