Ukraine concentrates troops for counter-offensive campaign
Events in the military- political sphere can always be interpreted in many different ways. But usually, we should not complicate the context. Everything is decided by military and political needs, not humanitarian issues.
Kiev’s proposal to declare a 30-day ceasefire seems to be a clear delay before a major operation. In preparation for a major counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU), they are eager to have a “temporary pause” to consolidate their forces, by withdrawing all units in the west and on the Belarusian border to the eastern front; this would further strengthen Kiev’s already thin forces.
It can be affirmed that the weapons used for Russia's long-range air attacks on Ukraine, such as the Geran-2 UAV or cruise missiles, or ballistic missiles, have consumed a lot of the AFU's military potential. Meanwhile, Ukraine does not have enough potential to approach the industrial and military centers on Russian territory with any heavy attack weapons.
Although Europe has slightly expanded the AFU's attack range, by lifting restrictions on long-range weapons, this will not fundamentally change the situation.
Several days have passed since Kiev announced a new escalation, but there has been no effective impact on the military infrastructure of the Russian Armed Forces (RFAF). Earlier, when former US President Biden, who authorized Ukraine to use US long-range strike weapons, attacked Russian territory, Storm Shadow cruise missiles reached their targets in the first hours after the information was released.
Although Germany is “hesitant” to provide Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, in fact, the Russians have ways to deal with such Western attack weapons, by enhancing camouflage, or moving strategic targets out of the attack range of Western weapons.
The question is how many strategic targets in Russia's nuclear shield are currently within range of NATO's high-tech missiles such as ATACMS, Storm Shadow or, if they are to be launched, Taurus? The answer is none.
Therefore, even if NATO allows Ukraine to use weapons provided by the West and strike deep into Russian territory at the longest range, it cannot create a turning point in military operations, but it still has a certain significance. This could be a prelude to the upcoming AFU offensive campaign, in the summer of 2025.
Information that the AFU is assembling forces for a short but powerful attack; but there are two questions related to this, which are where is the main direction of attack and the main target, and are there any important military targets actually within the AFU's attack range?
The AFU has recently been driven out of the Kursk region, thus losing its bargaining chip in negotiations with Russia. So will the AFU repeat its feat in Kursk last August; it is likely that the AFU will launch a similar campaign in the next three to four months. If not, 2025 will mark the continued retreat of the AFU.
Ukraine's "sleepover"
According to both Russian and Western analysis, it is about the upcoming victory of the RFAF on the battlefield in Ukraine, but this will not happen in the next few months. The RFAF is likely to continue to erode the AFU, but the immediate collapse of the AFU is not likely; even if the US stops military aid completely.
At present, the AFU is retreating, but the RFAF is not yet capable of developing an offensive operation on a campaign scale. Although the RFAF was quite successful in the Kursk area, it was not able to make the Ukrainian army panic and flee, as evidenced by the relatively small number of Ukrainian prisoners of war captured there. There is reason to believe that the AFU still has enough strength to launch a "famous offensive" that could inspire Kiev's supporters both at home and abroad.
The next sign that the AFU is preparing for an offensive is the noticeable revival of Western propaganda. Just like last summer, the Western media suddenly started talking about the “impossibility” of an AFU offensive, as they were forced to retreat on the Donetsk front and strain to fend off the Kharkov offensive.
With the AFU’s coordinated actions on the battlefield and in the information space, the current statements of the Western media cannot be ignored. It can be seen that the AFU is in a difficult situation, preparing for the worst, when they lack troops, lack artillery shells; and are having to use FPV UAVs to prevent the Russian attack.
This is how Western newspapers paint a picture of the near future, in which the AFU will only be able to defend itself. It is impossible to rule out the possibility that this is true information, but it is also impossible to rule out that this is a diversion, as the AFU continues to prepare, in order to be able to suddenly launch the “Kursk 2.0” operation.
The information about the complete superiority of the Russian defense industry in the production of FPV UAVs over Ukraine, which the Ukrainian media has created, is like a smokescreen. Obviously, the Western media is trying to create a Russian threat to Ukraine in the area where the AFU previously had an advantage, namely FPV UAVs; thereby continuing to call for increased military aid to Kiev.
Perhaps the best demonstration of the RFAF’s advantage in all types of weapons, including UAVs, is their advance on the battlefield in Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not about to collapse, although they may be struggling with a lack of artillery shells, anti-aircraft missiles and serious shortages of troops.
But the AFU's lack of weapons and manpower could not be fully exploited by the RFAF; otherwise, why would the RFAF bother to come up with tactics, plans or constantly change its attack approach?
Looking at Ukraine’s actions, it can be seen that Kiev is preparing for a major attack. Excitement about Russia’s military potential, along with “underestimation of the enemy,” are the reasons for Ukraine’s great victories in the 2022 counteroffensive and the 2024 cross-border assault on Kursk.
Especially after the AFU broke through in the Kursk region and went through the “painful” process of pushing the Ukrainian army out of there, the Russians needed to be more alert. Although the AFU might be in a very difficult situation on the battlefield, they still had enough strength to deliver blows that would “bruise” Russia; especially since they still had the support of the West.
Source: https://khoahocdoisong.vn/don-ru-ngu-cua-ukraine-lieu-kursk-20-co-lap-lai-post1545399.html
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