The chance of U23 Vietnam to win a ticket to the Asian tournament compared to the Southeast Asian representative

"U23 Vietnam has an 80% chance of winning a ticket to the 2026 AFC U23 Championship finals, while Indonesia only has about 35%," said Asean Football before the final round of the 2026 AFC U23 Championship qualifiers, which received the consensus of most Southeast Asian fans.

Accordingly, before the final round of the 2026 AFC U23 Championship qualifying round taking place tonight (September 9), only 6 Southeast Asian representatives still have a chance to compete for a ticket to the final round, including Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia and the Philippines.

The chance of U23 Vietnam winning a ticket to the Asian tournament compared to the Southeast Asian representative - 1

Matches of Southeast Asian teams in the final round of the 2026 AFC U23 Championship qualifiers (Photo: Asean Football).

However, considering the results after the last two rounds as well as the opponents they will face in the final round of the qualifying round, Asean Football website believes that U23 Vietnam is the team with the best chance of winning a ticket to the final round when they are leading Group C with 2 wins and only have to face U23 Yemen in the final round.

U23 Vietnam currently has 6 points like U23 Yemen but due to a better goal difference, coach Kim Sang Sik's team only needs a draw to qualify for the finals. Therefore, Asean Football believes that U23 Vietnam's chance of qualifying for the finals is 80%.

Meanwhile, Asean Football website said that Thailand's chance of winning a ticket to the 2026 AFC U23 Championship is 55%, Indonesia's is 35%, Cambodia's is 25%, Malaysia's is 15%. The lowest chance belongs to Philippines' U23 with a rate of only 10%.

The chance of U23 Vietnam winning a ticket to the Asian tournament compared to the Southeast Asian representative - 2

U23 Vietnam defeated U23 Singapore in the second match of the 2026 AFC U23 Championship qualifiers, thereby rising to the top of Group C (Photo: Do Minh Quan)..

"It's true that only U23 Vietnam and Thailand have a chance to get tickets to the final round considering the results and opponents in the final round," said Va Vanchhing from Thailand.

"U23 Yemen is not a tough opponent for U23 Vietnam. But U23 Korea is too difficult for U23 Indonesia to create a surprise. I still think U23 Indonesia has no chance of winning against Korea in the final match. U23 Korea plays very solidly in defense and vice versa, equally excellent in attack," Indonesia's Yoesoef Ml account admitted the home team's difficulties in the final match.

"I also believe that one or both U23 Vietnam and Thailand teams will win tickets to the finals. U23 Indonesia will have a lot of difficulty because U23 Korea is really at a much superior level," Wan Jai, also from Indonesia, shared the same opinion.

"The Philippines may win in the last round but the chance of qualifying for the finals is too low (provided that the Philippines defeats U23 Nepal and U23 Syria loses to U23 Tajikistan in the last round). But I will be very happy if U23 Philippines is the second team in Group K and wins 2/3 matches in the qualifying round, because it will help the players have a better mentality in the future," Jayson Jumuad Serna from the Philippines said about the home team's chances.

At 7pm on September 9, the two teams U23 Vietnam and U23 Yemen will enter the "final" match in Group C of the U23 Asian qualifiers at Viet Tri Stadium ( Phu Tho ). Before this match, both teams had 6 points but U23 Vietnam ranked higher due to a better goal difference.

The chance of U23 Vietnam winning a ticket to the Asian tournament compared to the Southeast Asian representative - 3