Tightening fuel standards: Need a more "harmonious" roadmap

Photo caption — Illustration photo: Tuan Anh/VNA

This is one of the strategic solutions to reduce CO₂ emissions, supporting the target of “net zero emissions” by 2050 that the Prime Minister committed to at COP26. However, this target is also causing concern for manufacturers, as well as many experts are concerned about the feasibility of the draft.

97% of gasoline-powered cars are at risk of stopping sales

According to the draft of the new National Technical Standards prepared by the Ministry of Construction , from 2030, the average fuel consumption (CAFC) of all new passenger car models manufactured, assembled and imported in Vietnam must reach 4.83 liters/100 km.

However, this target is causing great concern from manufacturers. The Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers Association (VAMA) said that this is an "overly strict" level, which could have a "huge impact and change almost the entire status quo of the Vietnamese automobile industry".

According to VAMA research, with the target of 4.83 liters/100 km by 2030, most conventional gasoline-powered vehicles (ICE) and even some hybrid vehicles (gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles) currently on the Vietnamese market will not meet this limit. Specifically, 96% of conventional gasoline-powered vehicles and 14% of current hybrid vehicles will not meet the standard.

Although not specifically named, it is possible to list the hybrid models that are considered the most fuel-efficient in Vietnam such as Honda CR V e:HEV RS with advanced technology but the manufacturer's announced mixed fuel consumption is still at 5.2 liters/100 km; Toyota Innova Cross Hybrid 4.92 liters/100 km; KIA Sorento HEV at 5.9 liters/100 km... When tightening fuel standards, these models will have difficulty meeting the figure of 4.83 liters/100 km proposed by the draft.

In addition, considering the period 2026 - 2030, most VAMA members will not meet the average fuel consumption target of the whole enterprise in the first year and during the entire period of applying the regulation, despite taking into account the efforts to transform the product technology of the enterprises.

Therefore, to meet the 4.83L/100km fuel limit target, carmakers will have to stop selling up to 97% of their current traditional gasoline models. Or, if they want to maintain sales volume, businesses will have to dramatically increase the production of electrified vehicles (hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fully electric vehicles) by up to 868% in just 5 years.

VAMA believes that this is almost “unfeasible” because charging station infrastructure and the power grid have not met the demand. Consumers are not ready to switch to electric vehicles. The domestic auto industry will be strongly impacted, affecting production, employment and budget revenue.

Businesses propose a more "harmonious" roadmap

Faced with the above challenges, VAMA has proposed a more “reasonable” implementation roadmap. Specifically, in 2027, the average fuel consumption will be 6.7 liters/100 km; in 2028, it will be reduced to 6.5 liters/100 km; in 2029, it will be 6.3 liters/100 km; and by 2030, the fuel consumption will stabilize at 6 liters/100 km.

According to VAMA's calculations, with this scenario, Vietnam can still achieve the target of reducing 15.66 million tons of CO₂ by 2030 as committed internationally, while reducing the impact on the market compared to the 4.83 liters/100 km scenario. If this roadmap is applied, car manufacturers still need to make great efforts in transforming the product structure (reducing about 34% of gasoline-powered vehicle production and increasing at least 366% of electric vehicles), but it will be more feasible.

This proposal also received consensus and comments from associations and regulatory agencies from the United States and Japan. Representatives from these countries all said that the current target was too strict and suggested extending the adjustment and transition period to give manufacturers more time to adapt.

The American Automobile Manufacturers Association (AAPC) recommends that Vietnam maintain the target of 6 liters/100 km in 2030 and only reduce it to 4.83 liters/100 km after 2035. Meanwhile, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) agrees with the 6 liters/100 km mark, and proposes extending the production adjustment period from 3 years to 5 years, in line with the development cycle of electric vehicle technology and fuel-efficient vehicles.

Automotive industry experts believe that reducing CO₂ emissions and improving energy efficiency is an inevitable trend. However, it is necessary to look at the actual conditions: charging infrastructure is not yet widespread, the cost of electric vehicles is still high, while the majority of Vietnamese people still choose gasoline cars due to price and convenience. The 6 liters/100 km roadmap by 2030 is more feasible, ensuring both promoting technology and maintaining market stability.

A representative of the Ministry of Construction, the drafting agency, said that it has fully recorded the opinions and will study them to report to competent authorities, in order to ensure both the implementation of the commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the stability of the domestic automobile industry.

Industry experts also believe that the story of automobile fuel consumption limits is not only a technical standard but also a decision that has a profound impact on consumers, businesses and the entire automobile industry.

Automotive expert Nguyen Minh Dong, MSc, engineer at the Volkswagen Design and Testing Center (Germany), said that issuing fuel consumption standards without accompanying requirements on gasoline quality is an approach that is not entirely correct in terms of technology and does not fully understand modern engine technology. Mr. Dong emphasized that the problem does not lie in the technological capabilities of car manufacturers, but in whether the engine is "fed" with the right type of fuel that meets the standards.

Mr. Dong also pointed out the experience in Europe, instead of imposing a consumption figure, the management agency directly controls CO2 emissions, which is both more accurate and fairer, because fuel consumption depends on the type of vehicle, capacity and weight. It is impossible to put everything in one basket and apply a single number. A 1.5L car cannot have the same standards as a 3.0L car.

To overcome this, auto expert Nguyen Minh Dong proposed a three-step roadmap: Requiring gasoline sold to meet Euro 5 standards at least one year before any new regulations for vehicles; directly applying international emission standards such as Euro 5 and Euro 6 instead of setting their own numbers and giving manufacturers at least two years to prepare.

Source: https://baolamdong.vn/siet-chuan-nhien-lieu-can-lo-trinh-hai-hoa-hon-391468.html