More challenges than opportunities
According to the report of the Ministry of Finance , the economic growth in the first 6 months reached 7.52% and was the highest growth rate of 6 months in the period 2011-2025. There were 17/34 localities after the merger with growth of over 8%. The bright spot in the growth picture was the processing and manufacturing industry which increased by 10.11% and was the driving force of the overall growth; exports increased by 14.4%; budget revenue reached 67.7% of the estimate, up 28.3%; registered FDI capital was over 21.5 billion USD, up 32.6%; The number of enterprises registering to enter and re-enter the market reached 152,700, 20% higher than the number of enterprises withdrawing from the market, the total registered capital added to the economy reached nearly 2.8 million billion VND, an increase of 89.03%... In 6 months, the macro economy was basically stable, inflation was controlled, and major balances of the economy were ensured.
The processing and manufacturing industry is the driving force of economic growth. In the photo: Processing tra fish for export at South Vina Company Limited, Tra Noc Industrial Park - Can Tho City.
International organizations forecast Vietnam's economic growth to be among the top in the ASEAN region and a bright spot in global growth. However, traditional growth drivers (exports, consumption, public investment) have been effective but have not met expectations; the pressure to disburse public investment capital in the last months of the year is very high, while domestic market purchasing power recovers slowly; exports are adversely affected by US tariff policies.
Forecasts also indicate that in the last 6 months of the year, there will be more difficulties and challenges than opportunities, and many issues cannot be predicted. In particular, the US's reciprocal tax policy is forecast to directly affect many of our country's key export industries such as electronics, textiles, wooden furniture and seafood, etc., creating pressure on GDP growth, macroeconomic stability, employment and social security. According to the Ministry of Finance's estimates, if exports to the US decrease by 1%, growth will be affected by about 0.08%; if domestic gasoline prices increase by 10%, growth will be affected by about 0.5%. In addition, competitive pressure in both domestic and export markets, trade protection barriers, non-tariff barriers, etc. will also directly affect the production and business of enterprises.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade , in the first 6 months of the year, the average monthly export of the whole country only reached 36.6 billion USD, 1.3 billion USD lower than the average level planned at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the context of the last 6 months of the year still has many difficulties and challenges for the country's exports. Currently, the corresponding tax rate of 20% for goods exported from Vietnam and 40% for goods transported through Vietnam as announced by the US President, although lower than that of other countries in the region, is still a high tax rate. To achieve the target of exporting the whole country to reach about 454-455 billion USD, an increase of 12% compared to 2024, it requires that the average export in the last months of the year must reach about 39 billion USD/month, so the solution must be synchronous and highly consensual.
Need determination
Given the actual developments, the Ministry of Finance has proposed two growth scenarios for the last two quarters of the year and for the whole year of 2025. Accordingly, Scenario 1 (growth in the whole year of 2025 reaching 8%): growth in the third quarter reaches 8.3% over the same period and in the fourth quarter reaches 8.5%. The scale of GDP for the whole year reaches over 508 billion USD, GDP per capita is over 5,000 USD. The growth drivers according to scenario 1 are total investment capital implemented in the whole society in the last 6 months of the year is about 108 billion USD, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (at current prices) increases by about 12% or more; total import-export turnover of goods in 2025 increases by 16% or more; average CPI is about 4.5-5%.
With Scenario 2 (full-year growth of 8.3-8.5% in 2025): growth in the third quarter will reach 8.9-9.2% over the same period and in the fourth quarter it will reach 9.1-9.5%. The scale of GDP for the whole year will reach over 510 billion USD, GDP per capita will be over 5,020 USD. The growth drivers according to scenario 2 are total investment capital implemented in the whole society in the last 6 months of the year of about 111 billion USD, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (at current prices) will increase by about 13% or more; total import-export turnover of goods in 2025 will increase by 17% or more; average CPI will be about 4.5-5%. Traditional growth drivers (export, consumption, investment) continue to be the main drivers, but there is still much room and potential to further promote.
In the two growth scenarios, the Ministry of Finance proposed that the Government and the Prime Minister choose Scenario 2 to create momentum for growth in 2026 to reach 10% or more. With this scenario, the leader of the Ministry of Finance said that localities need to achieve a higher growth target in 2025 than Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP, especially the leading localities, the growth drivers of the whole country: Hanoi increases by 8.5% (0.5% higher), Ho Chi Minh City 8.5% (0.4% higher), Quang Ninh 12.5% (1% higher), Thai Nguyen 8% (0.5% higher)... corporations, general companies, state-owned enterprises need to grow by 0.5% higher than the expenditure at the beginning of the year.
Regarding the proposal of the Ministry of Finance on the economic growth scenario in 2025 from 8.3-8.5%, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized that this is a very difficult and challenging target but not an impossible target. The Prime Minister pointed out 16 groups of key tasks and solutions that need to be implemented immediately in the last 6 months of the year with high determination, great efforts, drastic and effective actions, and "6 clear" assignments: clear people, clear work, clear time, clear responsibility, clear results, clear authority. The Prime Minister also requested the State Bank to continue implementing a proactive, flexible, timely and effective monetary policy, controlling credit going into economic growth drivers. Harmoniously coordinate with fiscal policy to promote economic growth.
According to the State Bank's leaders, thanks to the synchronous management of monetary solutions and policies, the lending interest rate continues to decrease. In June 2025 alone, the average lending interest rate for new loans of commercial banks was around 6.3%/year, down 0.6% compared to the end of 2024.
According to State Bank Governor Nguyen Thi Hong, in the coming time, the State Bank will continue to closely monitor developments in the international and domestic economic situation to proactively, flexibly and effectively manage monetary policy. At the same time, it will direct credit institutions to continue to reduce costs, maintain stable deposit interest rates, and strive to further reduce lending interest rates to support production and business, contributing to promoting economic growth.
Article and photos: GIA BAO
Source: https://baocantho.com.vn/thuc-hien-dong-bo-cac-giai-phap-de-dat-muc-tieu-tang-truong-kinh-te-nam-2025-a188660.html
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