J-16 will help Iran stop the US - Israel advantage

With large radar, long-range missiles and the ability to counter stealth fighters, the J-16 is considered a strategic card to help Iran turn the tide of battle in the air.

After Israel's large-scale airstrike on Iran on June 13, which involved direct US involvement with B-2 stealth bombers and nuclear submarines, the world has begun to pay more attention to Tehran's air force capabilities.

Despite possessing nearly 300 fighters, most of them Cold War-era F-4D/E, F-14 and Su-24, this force is considered almost useless in the role of modern air defense. The outdated aircraft make it impossible for Iran to deploy effective counterattacks, forcing the defense burden to the shoulders of ground-based missile complexes and ballistic missile arsenal.

The lack of a strong air force is also seen as a reason why Iran was unable to deter Israel and its Western allies before the conflict broke out. Although Tehran has negotiated for years to buy MiG-29s, MiG-31s and Su-30s from Moscow, the outcome has been nothing more than speculation.

Recently, Iranian media reported that the country had ordered Su-35 fighters, but there has been no sign that Russia is ready to deliver them. In this context, the option of looking to Chinese fighters - specifically the J-10C or J-16 - is increasingly gaining attention.

Developed from the Su-27 airframe but comprehensively upgraded, the J-16 is a heavyweight fighter of the 4++ generation of China, considered a direct rival to the US F-15EX. Compared to the J-10C which is light and has a short range, the J-16 is superior in many aspects: from radar area, fuel capacity, to weapons load and the ability to carry long-range air-to-air missiles.

The large AESA radar equipped on the J-16 is capable of detecting stealth fighters at much greater distances than Russian rivals such as the Su-35, as Chinese electronic technology has now surpassed Moscow's.

When placed next to the F-35's AN/APG-81 radar - which is nearly half the size - the J-16's advantage becomes even more obvious. In addition, this fighter is also coated with radar-scattering materials, has a composite fuselage and integrates modern data transmission lines - technologies inherited from the J-20 stealth fighter program.

The J-16's main armament is also formidable. The PL-15 and PL-16 missiles allow the aircraft to attack targets beyond visual range with high precision, and are considered a direct counter to the US AIM-260. At close range, the PL-10 is equipped with an infrared seeker and extremely large-angle guidance capabilities, giving the J-16 absolute superiority in close-quarters dogfights.

One particular advantage that makes the J-16 a perfect candidate for Iran is its ability to carry PL-XX missiles - a type of missile that is too large for the J-10C to use. PL-XX is specifically designed to destroy large targets such as tankers, AWACS or bombers. In the context that Israel still mainly uses F-16s and has to rely entirely on air refueling when attacking Iran, the appearance of J-16s carrying PL-XX could completely change the situation on the battlefield.

Even if Iran only had the budget to buy a small number of J-16s, the aircraft would still have a major impact on its deterrence. With its powerful radar, long-range missiles, and advanced combat systems, a squadron of J-16s could easily take on both Israeli F-15s and F-16s in beyond-visual-range combat. The technological gap would offset the gap in pilot training, which has long been Tel Aviv’s strength.

The long-range capability, combined with a large radar and a large weapons bay, allows the J-16 to carry out missions of logistical attacks, destroying command aircraft and disrupting enemy command and control systems, even before leaving Iranian airspace. That is something that the J-10C or any other fighter jet in Tehran's current inventory cannot do.

However, the transition to the J-16 will not be easy. The technological differences will require Iran to develop almost entirely new tactics, doctrine, and operating procedures. Pilot training and logistical maintenance will also be a major obstacle.

In addition, the fact that China has never exported the J-16 also raises the question of whether Russia, the country that originally designed the Su-27 airframe, will request approval. But in the context of Moscow's increasing dependence on Iranian UAVs in the conflict in Ukraine, it is not impossible that Russia will make concessions.

It is worth noting that China has made great strides in its 5th and 6th generation fighter program, making the risk of technology leakage of the J-16 - a 4++ aircraft - no longer too worrying. The fact that Beijing has exported the J-10C to Pakistan and Egypt, two countries with close defense relations with the US, shows that the possibility of selling the J-16 to Iran is no longer impossible.

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