MBS expects VN-Index to head towards 1,580 points when foreign cash flows return
P/E is the price-to-earnings ratio. It is a ratio that compares the price of a stock on the stock exchange to its book value.
According to MBS's report, the VN-Index is currently trading at around P/E of 14 times, higher than the recent 3-year average of 13.5 times but still 17% lower than the peak of 16.9 times set in the fourth quarter of 2021. Meanwhile, the VN30 group - mainly consisting of banking stocks - is currently valued at 12.7 times, 3% higher than the 3-year average (12.3 times) but still lower than the peak of 15 times.
This is considered the basis for showing that the market in general and large-cap stocks in particular are still at attractive valuations, especially in the context of positive corporate profit growth and expectations of market upgrade becoming clearer.
MBS believes that in the second half of the year, cash flow tends to spread to large-cap stocks that have not increased strongly in price, thanks to reasonable valuations and profit growth potential.
With the base scenario, if listed companies' profits increase by 17% and the market is valued at 13.5–13.8 times P/E, the VN-Index could reach 1,500–1,540 points by the end of the year.
In a more optimistic scenario, when the US tax policy has a more positive impact than expected and foreign capital flows strongly into the market thanks to the prospect of upgrading, market profits could increase by 19% with a P/E of about 13.5-14 times, bringing the VN-Index to the 1,580 point area.
Notably, the US's announcement of a new tax policy towards Vietnam in a more positive direction than the region, combined with increasingly clear expectations of market upgrade, is opening up great opportunities for foreign capital to return, especially to large-cap stocks with room for foreign investors.
MBS Securities Company Trading Office.
MSB identifies 8 prominent investment trends in the last 6 months of the year
MBS believes that the market will revolve around 8 main investment themes with the potential to generate profits in the second half of 2025:
First, residential real estate recovers : Benefiting from policies to remove legal difficulties for projects and low interest rates, home buying demand is stimulated again. Notable stocks include KDH and NLG.
Second, infrastructure development : Public investment capital is expected to disburse more than VND 500,000 billion in the last 6 months of the year, creating growth space for CTR, VCG, HHV, HPG, HSG will benefit from this big wave.
Third, loose monetary policy : The banking and financial services sector has a positive outlook as capital costs decrease and credit demand recovers. VCB, CTG, VPB are recommended stocks.
Fourth, digital transformation and technology : Resolution 57 creates a boost for investment in technology, especially AI and telecommunications. FPT and CTR are highly regarded as leading enterprises in this trend.
Fifth, electricity consumption and renewable energy : Production recovery and energy transition trends support growth. HDG, PC1, GEG are businesses with good foundations to exploit.
Sixth, LNG and oil and gas : Energy policies and LNG import plans are long-term growth drivers for GAS, PVS, and PVD.
Seventh, market upgrade prospects : Large-cap stocks with remaining foreign room such as VNM, MWG, PNJ become attractive destinations for foreign capital.
Eighth, domestic consumption recovery : MWG, VNM, PNJ benefit from the recovery of purchasing power and consumption.
List of 22 focus stocks for the period 2025–2026
The portfolio of key stocks selected by MBS includes 22 codes representing many fields from finance, technology, real estate to energy and consumption.
Some outstanding stocks:
Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade (CTG): Forecasted profit growth of 13-15%/year, ROE over 17.5%, P/B only 1.1 times in 2026 - attractive valuation compared to potential.
FPT Corporation (FPT): Benefiting strongly from digital transformation and AI application, compound profit growth of 20%/year, P/E 2025 valuation of only 19.4x - lower than the regional average.
Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company (HPG): Forecasted net profit in 2025 to increase by 42% thanks to strong demand for construction steel, P/E valuation of 11.8 x.
Mobile World Investment Corporation (MWG): 2025 profit expected to increase by 37%, 2026 increase by 23% thanks to recovering consumption and expanding Bach Hoa Xanh chain.
GAS: Net profit growth of 9.6% in 2025, thanks to expanding LNG imports and developing energy infrastructure.
In addition, codes such as VCB, VPB, DGC, GMD, VCG, HHV, HSG, PC1, HDG, NLG, KDH... are also assessed to have positive business prospects with expected price increases from 18% to 39% in the period 2025-2026.
Stock Filtering Strategy: The Key in Times of Divergence
MBS emphasized that in the context of the market not yet spreading its upward momentum and cash flow tending to be selective, focusing on large-cap stocks with good fundamentals, reasonable valuations and clear investment themes will be a suitable strategy for both institutional and individual investors.
The portfolio of focus stocks not only shows the potential for outstanding profit growth but also reflects the shifting trend of capital flows, especially foreign capital flows returning when the upgrading factor is reinforced.
MBS recommends that investors closely monitor policy developments, third-quarter business results, and signals of differentiation between industry groups to optimize investment strategies in the second half of the year - a time when many opportunities are assessed but also many risks.
Source: https://phunuvietnam.vn/8-xu-huong-dau-tu-6-thang-cuoi-nam-theo-nhan-dinh-cua-mot-cong-ty-chung-khoan-20250719202112246.htm
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